Mask or no mask for COVID-19: A public health and market study
Mask or no mask for COVID-19: A public health and market study
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0237691
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发表时间：
2020-08-14
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Dai, Susie Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Tom;Liu, Yan;Dai, Susie Y.
遏制2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的有效策略无疑将缓解公共卫生和全球经济受到的负面影响，但其影响范围尚未全面展开。在缺乏高效药物、疫苗和丰富医疗资源的情况下，采取了许多措施来管理感染率，避免耗尽有限的医院资源。戴口罩是可以以最低成本有效实施的非药物干预措施之一，不会严重破坏社会实践。各国的口罩佩戴指南差异很大。不管医学界的争论如何，也不管全球口罩生产短缺如何，越来越多的国家和地区正在推进公共场合佩戴口罩的建议或强制要求。我们的研究结合数学建模和现有科学证据，评估在公共场所使用普通医用口罩对抗COVID-19大流行的潜在影响。我们考虑了三个关键因素，这些因素有助于佩戴优质口罩降低传播风险的有效性，包括口罩气溶胶减少率、口罩人口覆盖率和口罩可用性。我们首先模拟了这三个因素对一般人群中病毒复制数量和感染发作率的影响。使用戴口罩的干预病毒传播途径，我们进一步模拟了戴口罩对流行曲线的影响，随着口罩意识和可用性的增加。我们的研究表明，戴口罩可以有效地与社会距离相结合，使流行曲线变平。戴口罩是一种合理的方式，可以作为抗击COVID-19的NPI实施。我们认识到，我们的研究仅基于目前可用的数据提供了预测，并估计了潜在的概率。因此，我们的模型需要进一步的验证研究。
Efficient strategies to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are peremptory to relieve the negatively impacted public health and global economy, with the full scope yet to unfold. In the absence of highly effective drugs, vaccines, and abundant medical resources, many measures are used to manage the infection rate and avoid exhausting limited hospital resources. Wearing masks is among the non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures that could be effectively implemented at a minimum cost and without dramatically disrupting social practices. The mask-wearing guidelines vary significantly across countries. Regardless of the debates in the medical community and the global mask production shortage, more countries and regions are moving forward with recommendations or mandates to wear masks in public. Our study combines mathematical modeling and existing scientific evidence to evaluate the potential impact of the utilization of normal medical masks in public to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider three key factors that contribute to the effectiveness of wearing a quality mask in reducing the transmission risk, including the mask aerosol reduction rate, mask population coverage, and mask availability. We first simulate the impact of these three factors on the virus reproduction number and infection attack rate in a general population. Using the intervened viral transmission route by wearing a mask, we further model the impact of mask-wearing on the epidemic curve with increasing mask awareness and availability. Our study indicates that wearing a face mask can be effectively combined with social distancing to flatten the epidemic curve. Wearing a mask presents a rational way to implement as an NPI to combat COVID-19. We recognize our study provides a projection based only on currently available data and estimates potential probabilities. As such, our model warrants further validation studies.