RECONSTRUCTION AND FUTURE-TRENDS OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED-STATES
RECONSTRUCTION AND FUTURE-TRENDS OF THE AIDS EPIDEMIC IN THE UNITED-STATES
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DOI：
10.1126/science.2063206
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发表时间：
1991-07-05
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
BROOKMEYER, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
BROOKMEYER, R
对美国过去和当前人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）感染率的估计存在相当大的不确定性。历史感染率的统计估计可以从获得性免疫缺陷综合症（艾滋病）发病率数据和潜伏期中获得。然而，这种方法受到许多不确定因素的影响，另外两种方法，即艾滋病毒传播的流行病模型和艾滋病毒流行率调查，被用来证实和完善统计估计。分析表明，美国的艾滋病毒感染率在20世纪80年代初迅速增长，在20世纪80年代中期达到顶峰，随后显着下降。由于潜在感染率的下降以及可能延迟艾滋病诊断的有效疗法的开发，艾滋病总体发病率可能在未来 5 年内趋于稳定。然而，随着感染者进展到艾滋病毒疾病的更晚期阶段，到 1995 年，未诊断出艾滋病、可能受益于治疗的晚期艾滋病毒患者数量预计将增加 40%。因此，尽管总体艾滋病毒感染率有所下降，但美国医疗保健系统对艾滋病毒感染者的治疗和护理的需求仍然巨大。
There has been considerable uncertainty in estimates of past and current human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates in the United States. Statistical estimates of historical infection rates can be obtained from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence data and the incubation period. However, this approach is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and two other approaches, epidemic models of HIV transmission and surveys of HIV prevalence, are used to corroborate and refine the statistical estimates. Analyses suggest the HIV infection rate in the United States grew rapidly in the early 1980s, peaked in the mid-1980s, and subsequently declined markedly. Due both to the decline in the underlying infection rate and to the development of effective therapies that may delay AIDS diagnosis, overall AIDS incidence may plateau during the next 5 years. However, the number of individuals with advanced HIV disease without a diagnosis of AIDS who could potentially benefit from therapy is expected to increase 40% by 1995 as infected individuals progress to more advanced stages of HIV disease. Thus, although the overall HIV infection rate has declined, the demands on the U.S. health care system for treatment and care of HIV-infected individuals remain enormous.