Local hazard models.
Local hazard models.
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DOI：
10.2307/271085
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发表时间：
1990-01-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Tuma, N B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, L L;Tuma, N B
我们引入了一类局部风险模型，该模型在局部而不是全局上维持参数假设。 这些模型允许估计灵活的基线危险率和非比例协变量效应。 最近开发的局部似然方法概括了最大似然方法，可用于估计这些模型。 我们通过根据 1980 年 6 月[美国]当前人口调查的数据估计初婚的两个局部风险模型（局部指数模型和局部 Gompertz 模型）来说明这些技术。 我们还将局部风险模型的结果与 Cox 模型、指数模型、分段指数模型和分段 Gompertz 模型的结果进行了比较。 局部指数模型和局部 Gompertz 模型的估计与各个子组的非参数估计非常一致。此外，当地模型的结果为初婚过程提供了有趣的实质性见解，这是从全球模型中不容易获得的。
We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential model and a local Gompertz model--from data in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population Survey. We also compare results of the local hazard models with those of Cox's model, an exponential model, a piecewise exponential model, and a piecewise Gompertz model. Estimates for the local exponential and local Gompertz models agree closely with nonparametric estimates for various subgroups. Moreover, results of the local models provide interesting substantive insights into the process of first marriage that are not easily obtained from global models.