A metropolitan scale analysis of the impacts of future electricity mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus
A metropolitan scale analysis of the impacts of future electricity mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113870
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Adil Mounir;G. Mascaro;D. White
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Adil Mounir;G. Mascaro;D. White
当前的人口和气候趋势增加了采用整体方法来管理水和能源系统的需求，特别是在像美国西南部这样的水资源有限的地区。在本研究中，我们使用长期能源替代规划（LEAP）平台量化了未来能源组合替代对亚利桑那州凤凰城大都会地区水能关系的影响。我们首先表明，LEAP能够模拟2001年至2018年能源生产和消费的历史观测。然后，我们在相同的需求预测和不同的能源结构解决方案下，模拟到2060年的未来发电量。我们的模拟结果如下：(i)热水占与水有关的总用途的71%，由于人口增长，预计到2060年其能源需求将增加一倍；相反，处理和运输水所需的能源预计将减少9%，主要是因为农业用水需求下降。（ii）更快地向可再生能源过渡的能源结构解决方案比更多依赖化石燃料的“一切照旧”方案更具可持续性，因为可再生技术发电所需的水更少（- 35%），二氧化碳排放量减少（- 57%）。向可再生能源的积极过渡预计结构成本高于一切照旧的情况，但由于可再生技术的业务成本较低，总费用可比较。这项工作补充和扩展了先前针对美国西南部的区域研究，并支持作者发起的当地利益相关者参与的当前努力。
Current population and climate trends are increasing the need to adopt holistic approaches for managing water and energy systems, especially in water-limited regions like the Southwestern U.S. In this study, we quantify the implications of future energy mix alternatives on the water-energy nexus in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan region using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) platform. We first show that LEAP is able to simulate historical observations of energy generation and consumption from 2001 to 2018. We then simulate future electricity generation through 2060 under the same demand projections and different energy mix solutions. Results of our simulations are as follows. (i) Water heating accounts for 71% of the total water-related uses and its energy needs are projected to double in 2060, due to population growth; the energy required to treat and move water is instead expected to decrease by 9%, mainly because of declining agricultural water demands. (ii) Energy mix solutions that transition faster to renewable sources are more sustainable than a business as usual scenario that relies more on fossil fuels, because renewable technologies require less water for electricity generation (−35%) and reduce CO2emissions (−57%). (iii) The aggressive transition to renewable energy is projected to have higher structural costs than the business as usual scenario, but comparable total expenses because of the lower operational cost of renewable technologies. This work complements and expands previous regional studies focused on the Southwestern U.S. and supports current efforts of local stakeholder engagement initiated by the authors.