The interannual variability and predictability in a global climate model
The interannual variability and predictability in a global climate model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00376-997-0073-2
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发表时间：
1997-10
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Wang Huijun;Xue Feng;Bi Xunqiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang Huijun;Xue Feng;Bi Xunqiang
本文对IAP 9层大气环流模式气候模拟（V1）和AMIP（Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project）模拟（V2）的年际变化进行了研究和讨论。通过对两次模拟的变率比（R）的分析，探讨了模式对气候年际变化的可预报性。结果表明：V2普遍大于V1，V2更接近大气真实的变率，V1和V2的主要差异在热带地区，对温度和位势高度的可预报性在热带地区较高，而在热带以外地区几乎没有可预报性，且高层可预报性大于低层。地球仪对降水的可预报性一般较低，热带东太平洋低层的可预报性一般较高。本文认为，改进陆面过程模式，并考虑陆面条件（积雪、降水、土壤湿度等）的年际变化，是提高模式可预报性的可能途径。作为气候建模和预测的强迫因子。
The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of V1 and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level than in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.