Epidemic dynamics for time-dependent transmission rate based on viral load dynamics: multi infection stage EBCM approach
Epidemic dynamics for time-dependent transmission rate based on viral load dynamics: multi infection stage EBCM approach
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DOI：
10.1088/1742-5468/ac8e59
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发表时间：
2022-10-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Kuga，Kazuki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kuga，Kazuki
许多流行病建模研究依赖于共同的假设，即个体之间的疾病传播率是恒定的。然而，实际上，传播率取决于受感染个体随时间变化的病毒载量。与时间有关的传播率有可能影响流行病的传播。在这项研究中，流感和SARS-CoV-2传播率曲线是根据感染者的病毒载量和剂量反应曲线绘制的。此外，提出了一种新的传染病模型--多传染阶段基于边的隔室模型，将传播率剖面应用于静态和时间网络中的传染病动力学。据确定，在最终的流行规模有没有在静态网络中的恒定和随时间变化的传播率之间的差异。然而，感染分数达到峰值的时间和峰值感染分数取决于传输速率分布。然而，在时间网络中，对于恒定的传输率的最终流行病的大小是高于时间依赖的传输率。总之，时间依赖的传播率强烈影响流行动力学。
Many epidemic modeling studies rely on the common assumption that the disease transmission rate between individuals is constant. However, in reality, transmission rates depend on the time-varying viral load of the infected individual. The time-dependent transmission rate has the potential to affect the spread of an epidemic. In this study, the influenza and SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate profiles were developed based on the viral load of infected individuals and dose-response curves. In addition, a new epidemic model, the multi-infectious stage edge-based compartment model, was proposed to apply the transmission rate profile to epidemic dynamics in both static and temporal networks. It was determined that in terms of the final epidemic size there is no discrepancy between the constant and time-dependent transmission rates in the static network. However, the time at which the infected fraction peaks, and the peak infection fraction are dependent on the transmission rate profile. However, in temporal networks, the final epidemic size for the constant transmission rate is higher than that for the time-dependent transmission rate. In conclusion, the time-dependent transmission rate strongly affects the epidemic dynamics.