THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OHL'S PRECURSOR METHOD
THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OHL'S PRECURSOR METHOD
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DOI：
10.1088/0004-6256/138/6/1998
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发表时间：
2009-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Z. Du;R. Li;H. N. Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Z. Du;R. Li;H. N. Wang
使用线性回归技术和相关分析，Ohl方法的预测能力满足以下关系之一。如果太阳活动周下降阶段的最小地磁指数aa与下一个太阳活动周的太阳黑子极大值之间的相关性变强，则可以成功地预报太阳活动周的振幅;如果相关性变弱，则预报误差超过预期预报误差。相关系数有一个下降的长期变化，这导致了预测能力的减弱趋势，以及44年的周期性，这可能解释了为什么预测方法在第23个太阳活动周没有很好地工作。由于这一发现在所研究的100年期间只出现过两次，这44年的周期性可能存在一定程度的不确定性，因此可能需要在未来进行检查。提出了两个量，即预测参数和预测指数，来分析预测能力。利用上述性质，可以提前分析预测结果的成功概率。
Using linear regression techniques and correlation analysis, the predictive power of Ohl's method is shown to satisfy one of the following relationships. Either a successful prediction of cycle amplitude can be obtained if the correlation between the minimum aa geomagnetic index in the declining phase of a solar cycle and the sunspot maximum of the succeeding cycle becomes stronger, or the prediction error exceeds the expected prediction error if the correlation becomes weaker. The correlation coefficient has a declining secular variation, which leads to a weakening trend in predictive power, as well as a 44 year periodicity that may explain why the prediction method did not work well for solar cycle 23. As this finding only emerged twice in the ∼100 year period studied, this 44 year periodicity may occur with a degree of uncertainty and may therefore need to be checked in the future. Two quantities, namely a prediction parameter and the prediction index, are proposed to analyze predictive power. Using the above properties, the success probability of a prediction result can be analyzed in advance.