Timing Successive Product Introductions with Demand Diffusion and Stochastic Technology Improvement
Timing Successive Product Introductions with Demand Diffusion and Stochastic Technology Improvement
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DOI：
10.1287/msom.1060.0102
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发表时间：
2006
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. M. Krankel;Izak Duenyas;R. Kapuscinski
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文献类型：
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作者：
R. M. Krankel;Izak Duenyas;R. Kapuscinski
本文研究了一个企业对连续产品代的引入时机的决策。我们研究的情况下，一个公司介绍了多代的耐用产品的需求是由需求扩散过程的特点。在固定的引入成本下，我们考虑的情况下，现有的产品技术提高随机。因此，推迟推出可能会导致进一步的技术改进，可能会以现有产品的销售放缓为代价（以及由于我们专注于耐用产品，即将推出的产品的市场潜力下降）。本文提出了一个基于状态的需求扩散模型，并构造了一个决策模型来解决企业引入的时机问题。通过将技术进步纳入我们的模型，我们证明了一个国家依赖的阈值政策的最优性，企业的产品引进决策。数值分析揭示了关键模型参数对产品推出速度的影响。我们的模型有助于解释企业的产品引进行为，并提供了一种替代以前的解释IBM公司的连续几代大型机的引进时机的决定。
This paper considers a firms decisions on the introduction timing for successive product generations. We examine the case where a firm introduces multiple generations of a durable product for which demand is characterized by a demand diffusion process. Under fixed introduction costs, we consider the case where available product technology improves stochastically. As such, delaying introduction to a later date may lead to the capture of further technology improvements, potentially at the cost of slowing sales for the existing product (and a decline in market potential for the product to be introduced, given our focus on durable products). We specify a state-based model of demand diffusion and construct a decision model to solve the firms introduction timing problem. By incorporating technology improvement in our model, we prove the optimality of a state-dependent threshold policy governing the firms product-introduction decisions. Numerical analysis reveals the influence of key model parameters on the pace of product introduction. Our model helps to explain the product-introduction behavior of firms and provides an alternative to previous explanations of IBMs introduction timing decisions for successive generations of its mainframe computers.