A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns
A 34-year simulation of wind generation potential for Ireland and the impact of large-scale atmospheric pressure patterns
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.079
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发表时间：
2017-06
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Lucy C Cradden;F. McDermott;L. Zubiate;Conor Sweeney;M. O’Malley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lucy C Cradden;F. McDermott;L. Zubiate;Conor Sweeney;M. O’Malley
为了研究大量风力发电的电力系统运行与气候相关的方面，需要具有足够宽时空范围的数据。风电行业相对年轻意味着无法获得真实系统的长期数据。这里，使用 MERRA 再分析风速数据为爱尔兰共和国开发了详细的汇总风力发电模型，并根据 2001-2014 年期间测得的风力发电数据进行了验证。在总装机容量达到约 500 兆瓦之后，该模型最成功地代表了这一时期中期的总发电量。模型可以很好地捕获大于 6 小时的尺度变化；发现另外一个更高分辨率的风数据集可以改善更高频率变化的表示。最后，该模型用于根据现有风电装机容量预测 1980 年至 2013 年 34 年间的假设总风电发电量。一些生产特征（包括容量因子、斜坡和持续性）与两种大规模大气模式（北大西洋涛动和东大西洋模式）之间存在关系。
To study climate-related aspects of power system operation with large volumes of wind generation, data with sufficiently wide temporal and spatial scope are required. The relative youth of the wind industry means that long-term data from real systems are not available. Here, a detailed aggregated wind power generation model is developed for the Republic of Ireland using MERRA reanalysis wind speed data and verified against measured wind production data for the period 2001–2014. The model is most successful in representing aggregate power output in the middle years of this period, after the total installed capacity had reached around 500 MW. Variability on scales of greater than 6 h is captured well by the model; one additional higher resolution wind dataset was found to improve the representation of higher frequency variability. Finally, the model is used to hindcast hypothetical aggregate wind production over the 34-year period 1980–2013, based on existing installed wind capacity. A relationship is found between several of the production characteristics, including capacity factor, ramping and persistence, and two large-scale atmospheric patterns – the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic Pattern.