Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios
Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-013-0490-y
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Santos, J. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fraga, H.;Malheiro, A. C.;Santos, J. A.
葡萄酒生产受天气和气候的影响很大，因此极易受到气候变化的影响。在葡萄牙，葡萄种植和葡萄酒生产是一项重要的经济活动。在本研究中，通过在非常高的空间分辨率（近1 km）下对汇总分类生物气候指数（CatI）进行分析，评估了葡萄牙当前的生物气候分区（1950-2000）及其在未来气候条件下的预测变化（2041-2070）。CatI结合了给定地区最相关的生物气候特征，从而允许在不同地区之间进行直接比较。未来的葡萄栽培区划是利用A1B排放情景下13个气候模式瞬态试验的数据来实现的。使用两步空间格局降尺度方法对这些数据进行降尺度处理。这种缩小尺度的方法可以描述中气候对整个葡萄牙葡萄栽培的影响。最近的结果描述了葡萄牙葡萄种植区当前的空间变异性。在未来的气候条件下，目前的葡萄种植区划预计将发生重大变化，这可能对葡萄牙酿酒行业构成重大挑战。在不同的气候模型中，这些变化都相当强劲。由于大多数葡萄酒产区气候温暖干燥，生物气候多样性较低。这将导致每个地区的品种适宜性和葡萄酒特性的变化。
Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950-2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041-2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.