A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
A decentralized approach to model national and global food and land use systems
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acc044
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发表时间：
2023-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Zerriffi，Hisham
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mosnier，Aline;Javalera-Rincon，Valeria;Zerriffi，Hisham
实现若干可持续发展目标和《巴黎气候协定》取决于所有国家在实现可持续粮食和土地系统方面取得迅速进展。我们建立了一个灵活的协作建模框架，以促进地方研究团队开发国家路径，并将其整合到全球规模。本地研究人员独立定制国家模型，与利益相关者合作探索本世纪中叶粮食和土地利用系统转型的路径。在线平台连接各国模型，迭代平衡全球出口和进口，并将结果汇总到全球层面。我们的研究结果表明，与目前的趋势相比，各国为提高可持续性而采取的行动每年可使森林净收益增加1亿吨，自然过程占主导地位的土地净收益增加950亿吨，2020-2050年期间二氧化碳汇将增加3.7亿吨/年，而所有国家的人均粮食消费量仍高于充足的粮食需求。我们举例说明全球联系如何影响国家结果，以及国家路径中的不同假设如何影响全球结果。这个模型的设置承认了社会生态环境的广泛异质性，以及生活在这些不同环境中的人们应该被赋予设计他们想要的未来的权力。但它也向地方决策者表明，我们的粮食和土地利用系统是相互联系的，迫切需要更多的合作，以融合地方和全球的优先事项。
The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.