Developers, non‐linearity and asymmetry in the development cycle
Developers, non‐linearity and asymmetry in the development cycle
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开发人员，开发周期中的非线性和不对称性
DOI：
10.1080/09599919508724146
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发表时间：
1995
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
J. Henneberry
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Antwi;J. Henneberry
摘要 有一些证据表明房地产市场存在周期性非线性，但用于识别它们的分析技术无法深入了解其来源或性质。对其他经济部门的研究表明，非线性的主要原因是主体在商业周期的不同阶段对相同冲击的不同反应。开发商是房地产行业的关键代理人，他们的行为在开发周期的不同阶段可能会有所不同。基于计算机的行为建模正式用于模仿开发人员可能采用的替代策略来制定利润预期，从而做出开发决策。当开发商使用当前成本和价值来确定他们的预期时，房地产市场价格信号的影响会被延迟，但不会被夸大。当开发商的预期受到过去经验的制约时，价格信号的影响就会被延迟和夸大。后一种策略的结果更为显着...
Summary There is some evidence of cyclical non‐linearities in the property market but the analytical techniques used to identify them provide no insight into their source or nature. Studies of other sectors of the economy suggest that a primary cause of non‐linearities is the differential response of agents to the same shocks at different stages of the business cycle. Developers are key agents in the property sector and their behaviour may vary between different stages of the development cycle. Computer‐based behavioural modelling is used formally to imitate alternative strategies developers might adopt to formulate profit expectations and, hence, to make development decisions. When developers use current costs and values to determine their expectations the effects of property market price signals are delayed but not exaggerated. When developers’ expectations are conditioned by past experience, the effects of price signals are both delayed and exaggerated. The results of the latter strategy are more marke...