Planning for the worst: estimates of obesity and comorbidities in school-age children in 2025
Planning for the worst: estimates of obesity and comorbidities in school-age children in 2025
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/ijpo.12185
复制
发表时间：
2016-10-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jackson-Leach, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lobstein, T.;Jackson-Leach, R.
背景世界卫生组织成员国已经通过决议，目标是在2025年(以2010年的水平为基础)实现婴儿、青少年和成年人的肥胖水平不增加。目的我们旨在评估卫生规划者和服务提供者面临的问题的规模。方法和结果使用全球疾病负担协作组织准备的2000年和2013年的数据，我们估计到2025年，大约2.68亿5-17岁的儿童可能超重，其中包括9100万肥胖儿童，假设没有任何政策干预被证明有效地改变了当前的趋势。我们还估计了2025年与肥胖相关的儿童的可能数量：糖耐量受损(1200万)、2型糖尿病(400万)、高血压(2700万)和肝脏脂肪变性(3800万)。一个补充表提供了184个国家中每个国家的估计。结论2025年的目标不太可能实现，卫生服务提供者将需要为与肥胖相关的合并症的显著增加制定计划。
BackgroundMember states of the World Health Organization have adopted resolutions aiming to achieve no increase on obesity levels' by 2025 (based on 2010 levels) for infants, adolescents and adults.ObjectivesWe aimed to assess the scale of the problem facing health planners and service providers.Methods and ResultsUsing data prepared by the Global Burden of Disease collaborative for 2000 and 2013, we have estimated that by 2025 some 268 million children aged 5-17 years may be overweight, including 91 million obese, assuming no policy interventions have proven effective at changing current trends. We have also estimated the likely numbers of children in 2025 with obesity-related comorbidities: impaired glucose tolerance (12 million), type 2 diabetes (4 million), hypertension (27 million) and hepatic steatosis (38 million). A supplemental table provides estimates for each of 184 nations.ConclusionThe 2025 targets are unlikely to be met, and health service providers will need to plan for a significant increase in obesity-linked comorbidities.