Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis
Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis
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DOI：
10.3390/agriculture11060569
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发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Boon Teck Tan;P. Fam;R. Firdaus;M. Tan;Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boon Teck Tan;P. Fam;R. Firdaus;M. Tan;Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne
气候变化是一个全球性问题，因为世界上许多国家越来越容易受到自然灾害的影响。各种研究中的许多气候模型都预测农业生产力下降，这主要是由于热带和亚热带地区，特别是东南亚地区的高温造成的。作为东南亚国家，马来西亚也不例外。因此，本研究旨在研究气候变化对马来西亚水稻产量的影响。采用面板数据法，使用 1987 年至 2017 年马来西亚半岛 8 个粮仓区的数据。主要目标是评估气候变量（即最低和最高温度和降水）对水稻产量的影响以及主季和淡季影响的差异。我们的回归结果表明，在主季和淡季的所有模型规格中，降水量均不具有统计显着性。虽然最高气温在淡季期间与产量呈负相关，但最低气温在两个种植季节都显示出积极影响。我们使用基于耦合模型比对项目第六阶段（CMIP6）高分辨率模型比对项目（HighResMIP）的高排放共享社会经济路径8.5情景（SSPs-8.5）的HadGEM3-GC31 N512分辨率模型来预测2030年和2040年的未来气候变化。预测结果表明，水稻产量将呈现更积极的趋势到 2040 年，与之前十年相比，主季期间为 -0.02% 至 19.85%，淡季期间为 -2.77% 至 7.41%。尽管某些地区的稻米产量可能会增加，但其他地区预计会受到负面影响。因此，农场层面的适应仍然至关重要，特别是在淡季，因为气候变化可能会扩大种植季节之间和粮仓之间的水稻产量差距。
Climate change is a global problem since many countries worldwide are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. Numerous climate models in various studies project a decline in agricultural productivity that will mainly be due to excessive heat in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in Southeast Asia. As a Southeast Asian country, Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Hence, the present study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on rice yields in Malaysia. A panel data approach was adopted using data from 1987 to 2017 on eight granary areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The main objectives were to assess the impact of climate variables (i.e., minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) on rice yield and the variance of the impact during the main season and off-season. Our regression results indicate that precipitation was not statistically significant in all model specifications for both the main and off-season. While the maximum temperature was found to be negatively associated with yield during the off-season, the minimum temperature showed a positive effect in both cropping seasons. We used the HadGEM3-GC31 N512 resolution model based on the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 scenario (SSPs-8.5) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project future climate change in 2030 and 2040. The projected results indicate that rice yield would show a more positive trend by 2040 when compared to the previous decade, ranging from −0.02 to 19.85% during the main season and −2.77 to 7.41% during the off-season. Although rice yield is likely to increase in certain areas, other areas are projected to experience negative effects. Hence, adaptation at the farm level remains crucial, specifically during the off-season, since climate change could widen the gaps in rice yields between cropping seasons and among granary areas.