Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2010.22.15
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发表时间：
2010-03-16
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Lutz, Wolfgang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Samir, K. C.;Barakat, Bilal;Lutz, Wolfgang
我们使用多州人口统计、队列组成方法，对120个国家（2005年占世界人口的93%）在2005-2050年间按5岁年龄组、性别和四个教育程度进行了预测。考虑到生育率和死亡率在教育水平上的差异，我们根据四种差异很大的教育情景提出了第一个系统的全球教育成就预测。研究结果显示了未来世界范围内受教育程度趋势的可能范围，从而有助于国家和国际层面的长期经济和社会规划，以及评估国际教育目标的可行性。
Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.