Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
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中国武汉的 COVID-19 传播动态：封锁和医疗资源的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9
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发表时间：
2020-06-24
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Feng, Guo-Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sun, Gui-Quan;Wang, Shi-Fu;Feng, Guo-Lin
由于COVID-19传染性强，在三个月左右的时间内就在全球传播，人们从其感染源、病理特征、诊断技术和治疗等多个方面进行了研究。然而，控制策略对 COVID-19 传播动态的影响还远未得到充分了解。为了揭示疾病传播的机制，我们提出了动态模型来显示 COVID-19 在武汉的传播。基于数学分析和数据分析，我们系统地探讨了封锁和医疗资源对武汉 COVID-19 传播的影响。研究发现，武汉封城时间越晚，武汉的感染人数就越少，但对中国其他城市乃至全球都会产生影响。而且，医疗资源越丰富，新增感染高峰越高，但最终规模越小。这些结果充分说明中国政府采取的防控措施是正确、及时的。
Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.