A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco
A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco
复制标题
DOI：
10.1126/science.287.5453.650
复制
发表时间：
2000-01-28
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Grant, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blower, SM;Gershengorn, HB;Grant, RM
预测未来 10 年内，抗逆转录病毒疗法 (ART) 在预防人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 感染和避免旧金山同性恋社区中获得性免疫缺陷综合症 (AIDS) 死亡方面的效果。传播模型与统计方法相结合，可以将 ART 的潜在治疗效果（在感染性和存活率方面）、危险行为的增加以及耐药性出现率纳入高度不确定性。在旧金山增加抗逆转录病毒疗法的使用将降低艾滋病死亡率，并可大幅降低发病率。
The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and averting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) deaths in the San Francisco gay community over the next 10 years was predicted. A transmission model was coupled with a statistical approach that enabled inclusion of a high degree of uncertainty in the potential treatment effects of ART (in terms of infectivity and survival), increase in risky behavior, and rate of emergence of drug resistance. Increasing the usage of ART in San Francisco would decrease the AIDS death rate and could substantially reduce the incidence rate.