Long-term analysis of rainfall and temperature data in Burkina Faso (1950-2013)
Long-term analysis of rainfall and temperature data in Burkina Faso (1950-2013)
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.4640
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ozer, Pierre
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
De Longueville, Florence;Hountondji, Yvon-Carmen;Ozer, Pierre
为了更好地突出1950年以来在布基纳法索观察到的气候变异性和变化的不同角度，本研究将经典气候指数的温度和降雨量趋势与季节指数分析相结合。结果显示，毫无疑问，全球变暖影响到了该国的所有地区。在降水方面，年总降水量的减少是最显著的变化。这与侧重于次区域其他领域的其他研究的结果是一致的。尽管所有站点都有这种负面趋势，但这项研究表明，大多数站点在最近几年都出现了降雨恢复。然而，2013年记录的降雨量仍远未达到大旱灾前的水平。对极端事件的调查表明，这些事件的频率和强度总体上是稳定的。然而，总降雨量的普遍减少、雨天平均降雨量的增加、最大连续干旱日数的增加和最大连续雨天的减少相结合，证明了即使所谓的暴雨不增加，雨型也是有变化的。由于结果没有显示极端事件的显著增加，很可能社会经济影响通常被认为是气候变化的直接后果，而且越来越多地观察到影响布基纳法索居民的影响不能仅仅归因于气候变化。
In this study, trends of classic climate indices on temperature and rainfall were combined with analyses of seasonal indices in order to better highlight the different angles of climate variability and change observed since 1950 in Burkina Faso. Results show that there is no doubt global warming affects all regions of the country. Concerning rainfall, the decrease of total annual precipitation proves to be the most significant change. This is consistent with results of other studies that focused on other areas of the sub-region. Despite this negative trend in all stations, this study demonstrates that themajority of stations have recorded a rainfall recovery in recent years. However, the rainfall levels recorded in 2013 are still far from what they were before the great droughts. The investigation of extreme events shows an overall stability in the frequency and in the intensity of these events. However, the conjunction of the general decrease of total rainfall, of the increase of average rainfall for wet days, of the increase of maximum consecutive dry days and of the decrease of maximum consecutive wet days proves that, even if there is not an increase in so-called heavy rains, there are changes in the pattern of rainfall. Because the results do not show a significant increase of extreme events, it is likely that the socioeconomic impacts generally presented as direct consequences of climate change and which are increasingly observed affecting inhabitants of Burkina Faso cannot be attributed to climate change alone.