When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?
When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014004
复制
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Maraun, Douglas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Maraun, Douglas
一个多模式集成的区域气候预测欧洲调查的时间出现（TOE）的季节性总和和最大日降水量取决于空间尺度。评估目标被重新定义为仅从内部变率中出现;由于气候模型制定不完善而导致的评估目标的扩散被用作评估目标本身不确定性的度量。因此，TOE成为一个从根本上限制的时间尺度，并转化为一个最小的空间尺度，在这个尺度上可以得出关于降水趋势的可靠结论。因此，适应规划的最低时间和空间尺度也给出了。在北方欧洲，冬季平均降水量和强降水量呈正趋势，在欧洲西南部和东南部，夏季平均降水量趋势在未来几十年内已经出现。然而，在广泛的地区，特别是夏季降水量大的地区，局部趋势只出现在世纪后期或以后。对于较大尺度的平均降水量，一般来说，趋势出现得更早。
A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only; the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby, the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting timescale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus, minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are also given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, and in southwestern and southeastern Europe, summer trends in mean precipitation already emerge within the next few decades. However, across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend, in general, emerges earlier.