Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends, human impacts or natural variability?
Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records: Global warming trends, human impacts or natural variability?
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DOI：
10.1029/2009gl042045
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发表时间：
2010-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jeannine‐Marie St. Jacques;D. Sauchyn;Yang Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jeannine‐Marie St. Jacques;D. Sauchyn;Yang Zhao
∼60年太平洋年代际涛动是控制落基山脉北部径流的一个主要因素，它的正相是干燥的，负相是潮湿的。如果PDO的影响没有被纳入对径流的趋势分析中，它可能会产生检测到的下降，而这些下降实际上是这种低频变化的伪像。更多的困难来自于大多数量规记录的长度较短和不连续、人为影响和剩余自相关。我们分析了艾伯塔省南部和周围地区的仪器径流数据，使用了来自未监管和监管的量规和自然记录的充满空隙的数据集，并使用广义最小二乘回归明确地模拟了PDO和其他气候振荡的影响。我们的结论是，由于水文气候变化(可能来自全球变暖)和严重的人类影响，大多数量度的径流都在下降，这与水文气候变化的量级相同，如果不是更大的话。
The ∼60 year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major factor controlling streamflow in the northern Rocky Mountains, causing dryness during its positive phase, and wetness during its negative phase. If the PDO’s influence is not incorporated into a trend analysis of streamflows, it can produce detected declines that are actually artifacts of this low‐frequency variability. Further difficulties arise from the short length and discontinuity of most gauge records, human impacts, and residual autocorrelation. We analyze southern Alberta and environs instrumental streamflow data, using void‐filled datasets from unregulated and regulated gauges and naturalized records, and Generalized Least Squares regression to explicitly model the impacts of the PDO and other climate oscillations. We conclude that streamflows are declining at most gauges due to hydroclimatic changes (probably from global warming) and severe human impacts, which are of the same order of magnitude as the hydroclimate changes, if not greater.