Slope safety evaluation by integrating multi-source monitoring information
Slope safety evaluation by integrating multi-source monitoring information
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DOI：
10.1016/j.strusafe.2013.08.007
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Zhang, L. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peng, M.;Li, X. Y.;Zhang, L. M.
提出了一种利用多源监测信息进行边坡安全评价的系统方法。首先，构建边坡安全系数、多个监测指标及其影响参数（摩擦角、黏聚力等）的连续分布变量贝叶斯网络；然后考虑模型和参数的不确定性，对贝叶斯网络的先验概率进行量化。然后利用多源监测信息，利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟更新土或岩石模型参数的概率分布和安全系数。以具有多个监测参数的边坡为例，说明了所提出的方法。该方法能够基于边坡稳定机制整合多源信息，利用综合监测信息更新土岩参数、边坡安全系数和破坏概率。因此，在多个站点特定信息来源的支持下，评估变得更加可靠。(C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
A systematic method is presented for evaluating the slope safety utilizing multi-source monitoring information. First, a Bayesian network with continuously distributed variables for a slope involving the factor of safety, multiple monitoring indexes and their influencing parameters (e.g. friction angle and cohesion) is constructed. Then the prior probabilities for the Bayesian network are quantified considering model and parameter uncertainties. After that, multi-source monitoring information is used to update the probability distributions of the soil or rock model parameters and the factor of safety using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. An example of a slope with multiple monitoring parameters is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. The method is able to integrate multi-source information based on slope stability mechanisms, and update the soil or rock parameters, the slope factor of safety, and the failure probability with the integrated monitoring information. Hence the evaluation becomes more reliable with the support of multiple sources of site-specific information. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.