European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?
European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015: does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?
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DOI：
10.1093/annonc/mdv001
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
50.5
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Bertuccio, P.;Negri, E.
背景资料：2015年的癌症死亡率统计数据是根据欧盟及其六个人口大国的最新数据预测的。前列腺癌details.Patients和方法进行了分析：从世界卫生组织数据库和欧盟统计局获得的人口和死亡认证数据从胃，结肠直肠，胰腺，肺，乳腺，子宫，前列腺，白血病和总癌症。数据来自欧盟、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国。2015年按年龄组分列的预计死亡人数是通过对联合点回归模型确定的最近一段时间的估计死亡人数进行线性回归得出的。预计2015年欧盟共有1359100例癌症死亡（男性766，200人，女性592，900人），相应的标准化死亡率为138.4/100，000男性和83.9/100，000女性，自2009年以来分别下降了7.5%和6%。在男性中，三种主要癌症（肺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌）的预测发病率低于2009年，分别下降了9%、5%和12%。在35-64岁、65-74岁和75岁以上年龄组中，前列腺癌的预测福尔斯下降了14%、17%和9%。在女性中，乳腺癌和结直肠癌有有利的趋势（-10%和-8%），但预计肺癌发病率上升9%，达到14.24/100000，成为发病率最高的癌症，达到并可能超过乳腺癌发病率-尽管乳腺癌死亡总数（90800）仍然高于肺癌（87500）。胰腺癌在男性和女性中的前景都是负面的，2009年至2015年期间男性增加了4%，女性增加了5%。2015年的癌症死亡率预测证实了欧盟整体癌症死亡率的有利趋势，自1988年的峰值以来，男性死亡率总体下降了26%，女性死亡率下降了21%。与峰值相比，2015年避免了超过325，000人死亡。
Background: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail.Patients and methods: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.Results: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015.Conclusions: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.