Learning and Inflation Convergence in the ERM
Learning and Inflation Convergence in the ERM
复制标题
ERM 中的学习和通胀趋同
DOI：
10.2307/2234775
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发表时间：
1993
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Marcus Miller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Driffíll;Marcus Miller
本文建立了一个模型，在固定汇率制度下，代理人了解贬值的概率。货币贬值的真实概率被假定为低（或零）B ut代理人最初不确定政府的意图和艺术与高先验信念。贝叶斯更新表明，在没有贬值发生的时期，私营部门的预期会被下调，但在贬值发生时，私营部门的预期会急剧上升。将这一学习模型嵌入到一个重叠契约模型中，研究了加入ERM后通货膨胀的收敛过程。其主要结果是，经济主体高估了当局期望的汇率调整率，因此预期通货膨胀率会很高;但由于当局实际上并没有贬值，贸易条件损失导致经济衰退。在经济主体正确估计调整率的长期均衡能够实现之前，竞争力的损失实际上必须通过持续的通货紧缩来弥补。版权所有1993年由皇家经济学会。
This paper develops a model where agents learn about the probability of devaluations in a fixed exchange rate regim e. The true probability of devaluation is assumed to be low (or zero) b ut agents are initially unsure about the government's intentions and st art with a high prior belief. Bayesian updating dictates that private sector expectations are revised down during periods when no devaluat ion occurs, but are sharply increased when a devaluation does occur. Thi s model of learning is embedded in a model of overlapping contracts to study the process of inflation convergence after ERM entry. The main results are that agents over-estimate the authorities' desired realignment rate, so inflation will be high in anticipation; but as the authorities do not actually devalue, there is a terms of trade loss leading to recession. Before long-run equilibrium in which agents correctly estimate realignment rates can be attained, competitivenes s losses actually have to be regained by a sustained deflation. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.