Phantom midge-based models for inferring past fish abundances
Phantom midge-based models for inferring past fish abundances
复制标题
基于幻蠓的模型用于推断过去的鱼类丰度
DOI：
10.1007/s10933-012-9579-4
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
H. Hämäläinen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Tolonen;K. Brodersen;Tanya A. Kleisborg;K. Holmgren;Magnus Dahlberg;L. Hamerlík;H. Hämäläinen
我们从瑞典南部 21 个小湖泊的表层沉积物中采集了活体和亚化石幻蚊（双翅目：Chaoboridae）幼虫样本，以研究鱼类和选定的非生物变量对 Chaoboridae 组合的丰度和物种组成的影响。我们预计Chaoborus 的总丰度与鱼类丰度呈负相关，并且对鱼类捕食最敏感的Chaoborus 物种仅在无鱼湖泊中发现。我们的目的是利用观察到的关系来开发模型，以重建混沌鱼遗骸和非生物环境中过去的鱼类丰度。几乎每个湖泊中都存在黄芪，而亚化石C.仅在一个无鱼湖泊的表层沉积物中发现了暗纹鱼。居住密度C.黄黄鱼幼虫与鱼类丰度、湖泊秩序和大小呈负相关。浓度C.黄芪亚化石与 pH 值、湖泊大小、水体透明度和鱼类丰度呈负相关。包含湖泊形态测量和景观位置作为鱼类丰度附加预测因子的回归模型比仅使用 Chaoborus 预测因子的模型表现更好。鱼类丰度的解释差异从 52% 到 86% 不等。留一交叉验证表明两个最佳模型的性能中等。这些模型分别解释了观察到的未转化鱼类密度和生物量的 51% 和 56%。此外，所有 Chaoborus 模型在观测值与预测值图中均严格遵循 1:1 参考线，无偏差。这些结果是对过去鱼类丰度进行基于蠓的古湖泊学重建的一个有希望的一步，并且通过将摇蚊遗骸纳入模型中可以改进该方法。
We sampled living and subfossil phantom midge (Diptera: Chaoboridae) larvae from surface sediments of 21 small lakes in Southern Sweden to examine the influence of fish and selected abiotic variables on the abundance and species composition of chaoborid assemblages. We expected totalChaoborusabundance to be inversely correlated with fish abundance andChaoborusspecies most sensitive to fish predation to be found only in fishless lakes. We aimed to use the observed relationships to develop models to reconstruct past fish abundances from chaoborid remains and the abiotic environment.C. flavicansoccurred in almost every lake, whereas subfossilC. obscuripeswere found in the surface sediments of only one fishless lake. The density of livingC. flavicanslarvae correlated negatively with fish abundance, lake order and size. The concentration ofC. flavicanssubfossils was negatively associated with pH, lake size, water transparency and fish abundance. Regression models that included lake morphometry and landscape position as additional predictors of fish abundance performed better than models that used onlyChaoboruspredictors. The explained variance in fish abundance varied from 52 to 86%. Leave-one-out cross-validation indicated moderate performance of the two best models. These models explained 51 and 56% of the observed untransformed fish density and biomass, respectively. In addition, allChaoborusmodels were unbiased in closely following the 1:1 reference line in plots of observed versus predicted values. These results are a promising step in developing midge-based paleolimnological reconstructions of past fish abundance, and the approach might be improved by including chironomid remains in the models.