Historical Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6
Historical Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ms001995
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Sutton, Rowan T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Andrews, Martin B.;Ridley, Jeff K.;Sutton, Rowan T.
我们描述并评估了历史模拟，这些模拟使用了全球耦合配置3.1版本的哈德利中心第三代全球环境模型（HadGEM3 - GC3.1），并且是英国对第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）贡献的一部分。这些模拟以两种分辨率运行，对诸如温室气体、气溶胶、太阳辐照度、火山气溶胶、土地利用和臭氧浓度等历史演变的强迫因子做出响应。我们评估了模拟对这些历史强迫因子的响应，并与观测记录进行了比较。这包括全球平均地表温度、海洋热含量、海冰范围、冰盖质量平衡、永久冻土范围、积雪覆盖、北大西洋海表温度和环流以及年代际降水的演变。我们发现，全球平均地表温度的模拟时间演变大致遵循观测记录，但存在重要的定量差异，我们发现这些差异很可能归因于人为气溶胶的强大有效辐射强迫以及低中纬度地区对火山爆发的海表温度响应模式较弱。我们还发现有证据表明，人为气溶胶强迫在驱动大西洋多年代际变率和大西洋经向翻转环流方面发挥了作用，这两者是北大西洋的关键特征。总体而言，该模型的历史模拟在1850 - 2014年期间显示出与观测记录有许多共同特征，因此为未来深入研究近期气候变化提供了基础。
We describe and evaluate historical simulations which use the third Hadley Centre Global Environment Model in the Global Coupled configuration 3.1 (HadGEM3-GC3.1) model and which form part of the UK's contribution to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. These simulations, run at two resolutions, respond to historically evolving forcings such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols, land use, and ozone concentrations. We assess the response of the simulations to these historical forcings and compare against the observational record. This includes the evolution of global mean surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice extent, ice sheet mass balance, permafrost extent, snow cover, North Atlantic sea surface temperature and circulation, and decadal precipitation. We find that the simulated time evolution of global mean surface temperature broadly follows the observed record but with important quantitative differences which we find are most likely attributable to strong effective radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols and a weak pattern of sea surface temperature response in the low to middle latitudes to volcanic eruptions. We also find evidence that anthropogenic aerosol forcings play a role in driving the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which are key features of the North Atlantic ocean. Overall, the model historical simulations show many features in common with the observed record over the period 1850-2014 and so provide a basis for future in-depth study of recent climate change.