Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa
Seasonal prediction and regional climate projections for southern Africa
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DOI：
10.7809/b-e.00296
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Helmschrot, Joerg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Archer, Emma;Engelbrecht, Francois;Helmschrot, Joerg
在过去的五十年里，南部非洲的气温一直在迅速上升，其速度大约是全球气温上升速度的两倍。在未来低减缓的情况下，到世纪末，相对于目前的气候，中部和西部内陆地区可能会进一步急剧上升6摄氏度。此外，南部非洲在未来减缓程度较低的气候变化下，预计将普遍变得更加干燥。这种变化将使一个已经以干燥和炎热为特征的地区几乎没有适应的空间。对农作物和畜牧业的影响很可能是毁灭性的，热带稀树草原的植被覆盖可能发生重大变化，特别是在存在人类引起的土地退化的情况下。在中度到高度减缓的情况下，南部非洲仍将经历进一步的气候变化，但变化幅度将降低，可能留下更多的适应空间。熟练的季节预报可能成为南部非洲日益重要的适应工具，特别是在与强大的气象站监测网络相结合的情况下。
Temperatures over southern Africa have been increasing rapidly over the last five decades, at a rate of about twice the global rate of temperature increase. Further drastic increases, in the order of 6 degrees C by the end of the century relative to the present-day climate, may occur over the central and western interior regions under low-mitigation futures. Moreover, southern Africa is projected to become generally drier under low-mitigation climate change futures. Such changes will leave little room for adaptation in a region that is already characterised as dry and hot. Impacts on crop and livestock farming may well be devastating, and significant changes may occur in terms of vegetation cover in the savannas, particularly in the presence of human-induced land degradation. Under modest to high mitigation, southern Africa will still experience further climate change, but amplitudes of change will be reduced, potentially leaving more room for adaptation. Skilful seasonal forecasts may become an increasingly important adaptation tool in southern Africa, especially when combined with a robust weather station monitoring network.