The use of a numerical weather prediction model to simulate the release of a dense gas with an application to the Lake Nyos disaster of 1986
The use of a numerical weather prediction model to simulate the release of a dense gas with an application to the Lake Nyos disaster of 1986
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DOI：
10.1002/met.1603
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发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Mobbs, S. D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burton, R. R.;Dudhia, J.;Mobbs, S. D.
稠密气体在大气中的扩散是一种普遍存在的现象，有自然(和人为)原因，往往与高影响和危险事件有关。本文提出了一种在数值天气预报模式中模拟稠密气体扩散的方法。这种方法的优点是，可以使用逼真的强迫(从驱动气象场和地面特征的表示方面)在复杂地形区域模拟稠密气体。通过半理想化的重力流模型实验和类似的模型研究对模型公式进行了检验。作为一个应用实例，模拟了1986年尼奥斯湖灾难，当时密集的二氧化碳云蔓延到喀麦隆的一个山区。预测的二氧化碳扩散(在定性上)与观测结果非常吻合。该方法提供了一种方法来确定一个潜在的安全高度，在这个高度上模拟的浓度是不危险的，因此，在未来类似的事件中，超过这个高度应该采取避难措施。该仿真展示了一种新的应用，可以快速应用于其他场景。
The spread of a dense gas in the atmosphere is a phenomenon that occurs widely with natural (and anthropogenic) causes and is often associated with high impact and hazardous events. In this study a method of simulating the spread of dense gases in a numerical weather prediction model is presented. This approach has the advantage that dense gases can be simulated in regions of complex terrain using realistic forcings (in terms of both the driving meteorological fields and the representation of surface characteristics). The model formulation is tested against semi-idealized gravity-current-type experiments and similar modelling studies. As an example application, the Lake Nyos disaster of 1986, where a dense CO2 cloud spread through a mountainous region of Cameroon, is simulated. The predicted spread of CO2 agrees (qualitatively) very well with the observations. The method provides a means of determining a potential safe height' above which simulated concentrations are not hazardous, and thus the height above which refuge should be taken during similar future events. The simulation demonstrates a novel application which can be rapidly applied to other scenarios.