An Approach for Simulating Soil Loss from an Agro-Ecosystem Using Multi-Agent Simulation: A Case Study for Semi-Arid Ghana
An Approach for Simulating Soil Loss from an Agro-Ecosystem Using Multi-Agent Simulation: A Case Study for Semi-Arid Ghana
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DOI：
10.3390/land4030607
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发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
B. Badmos;S. Agodzo;G. Villamor;S. Odai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Badmos;S. Agodzo;G. Villamor;S. Odai
土壤流失不仅限于从森林或林地到其他土地利用/覆盖的变化。当农业土地使用/覆盖改变或转换时，可能会发生这种情况。土壤流失会影响土壤中碳的流失，进而影响温室气体的排放。改变土地用途可被视为实际上或可能成功地适应了气候变化，如果造成环境退化，则可被视为适应不良。在半干旱的加纳北方，在气候多变性和气候变化适应措施中，确定了改变农业做法。同样，一些旨在提高农户对气候变化影响的适应能力的政策可能需要改变土地使用。在处理土地利用/覆盖变化问题时，不能忽视农户（代理人）的异质性，特别是当生计依赖于土地时。因此，本文提出了一种方法来模拟土壤流失的农业生态系统使用多智能体模拟（MAS）。我们采用了一个通用的土壤流失方程作为土壤流失子模型的Vea-LUDAS模型（MAS模型）。此外，在20年的模拟期内，我们提出了农业土地利用适应战略（玉米种植信贷，玉米信贷情景）对土壤流失的影响，并将其与基线情景进行比较，即，一切照旧。玉米种植信贷对玉米种植的影响显著影响了研究区农业土地利用的变化。虽然在测试情景下土壤流失没有显着差异，但以时间方式纳入人类决策使我们能够查看无法在单步建模中看到的模式。研究表明，在侵蚀风险高的土壤上开辟农田对土壤流失有影响。因此，应采取有效措施，防止开垦侵蚀风险高的土地。
Soil loss is not limited to change from forest or woodland to other land uses/covers. It may occur when there is agricultural land-use/cover modification or conversion. Soil loss may influence loss of carbon from the soil, hence implication on greenhouse gas emission. Changing land use could be considered actually or potentially successful in adapting to climate change, or may be considered maladaptation if it creates environmental degradation. In semi-arid northern Ghana, changing agricultural practices have been identified amongst other climate variability and climate change adaptation measures. Similarly, some of the policies aimed at improving farm household resilience toward climate change impact might necessitate land use change. The heterogeneity of farm household (agents) cannot be ignored when addressing land use/cover change issues, especially when livelihood is dependent on land. This paper therefore presents an approach for simulating soil loss from an agro-ecosystem using multi-agent simulation (MAS). We adapted a universal soil loss equation as a soil loss sub-model in the Vea-LUDAS model (a MAS model). Furthermore, for a 20-year simulation period, we presented the impact of agricultural land-use adaptation strategy (maize cultivation credit i.e., maize credit scenario) on soil loss and compared it with the baseline scenario i.e., business-as-usual. Adoption of maize as influenced by maize cultivation credit significantly influenced agricultural land-use change in the study area. Although there was no significant difference in the soil loss under the tested scenarios, the incorporation of human decision-making in a temporal manner allowed us to view patterns that cannot be seen in single step modeling. The study shows that opening up cropland on soil with a high erosion risk has implications for soil loss. Hence, effective measures should be put in place to prevent the opening up of lands that have high erosion risk.