The Global Hydrological Cycle and Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption in Climate Models under CO2 Forcing
The Global Hydrological Cycle and Atmospheric Shortwave Absorption in Climate Models under CO2 Forcing
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二氧化碳强迫下气候模型中的全球水文循环和大气短波吸收
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
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通讯作者：
Ken Takahashi
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作者：
Ken Takahashi
气候模式对加强全球水文循环的预测[即，全球平均地表潜热通量（LH），或者，等价地，降水量]在给定的CO2引起的全球变暖水平上与模式间平均值具有相同的量级。通过比较几个气候模式从世界气候研究计划（WCRP）耦合模式相互比较项目第3阶段（CMIP 3）数据库下理想化的CO2强迫，它表明，在全球大气短波加热（SWabs）的增加引起的晴空吸收，大概是由水蒸气的差异，部分解释了这种传播。SWabs和LH的增加在模型间呈现相似的扩散，但与LH相关，因此SWabs + LH的总和比单独增加更稳健。这与最近提出的理论（高桥）预测，这个总和（或等效地，净长波散度减去表面感热通量）是由能量cons约束。
Abstract The spread among the predictions by climate models for the strengthening of the global hydrological cycle [i.e., the global mean surface latent heat flux (LH), or, equivalently, precipitation] at a given level of CO2-induced global warming is of the same magnitude as the intermodel mean. By comparing several climate models from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) database under idealized CO2 forcings, it is shown that differences in the increase in global atmospheric shortwave heating (SWabs) induced by clear-sky absorption, presumably by water vapor, partly explains this spread. The increases in SWabs and LH present similar spreads across models but are anticorrelated, so the sum SWabs + LH increases more robustly than either alone. This is consistent with a recently proposed theory (Takahashi) that predicts that this sum (or, equivalently, the net longwave divergence minus the surface sensible heat flux) is constrained by energy cons...