Spatial and temporal predictions of whooping crane ( Grus americana ) habitat along the US Gulf Coast
Spatial and temporal predictions of whooping crane ( Grus americana ) habitat along the US Gulf Coast
复制标题
美国墨西哥湾沿岸美洲鹤栖息地的时空预测
DOI：
10.1111/csp2.12696
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Fuhlendorf, Samuel D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Golden, Katherine E.;Hemingway, Benjamin L.;Frazier, Amy E.;Scholtz, Rheinhardt;Harrell, Wade;Davis, Craig A.;Fuhlendorf, Samuel D.
保护可行的栖息地，同时预测土地覆盖如何随着未来气候变化而发生地理变化，这一挑战给生态学家和政策制定者带来了压力，要求他们制定近期（几年到十年）的生态和地理空间预测。这对于濒临灭绝的物种尤其重要，因为范围会根据气候变化而调整。美洲鹤很容易受到这些变化的影响，因为少数种群的越冬栖息地很容易受到气候影响。这项研究绘制了阿兰萨斯国家野生动物保护区及其周边地区鹤栖息地的历史空间转变。开发了一系列生态位模型来确定与鹤存在相关的生物和非生物因素，并跟踪重要性随时间的变化。多时相模型的结果用于预测美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区可能存在额外的闲置栖息地以促进鹤种群的扩张，并模拟在未来气候变化情景下随着海平面上升这些地区可能如何退化或变化。研究结果表明，新兴草本湿地和水的百分比是影响鹤存在的最重要变量。海平面上升分析表明，整个德克萨斯州-路易斯安那州墨西哥湾沿岸的潜在栖息地将受到气候变化的显着影响。缺乏大片连续的可用土地覆盖可能会限制人口扩张和未来的恢复工作。然而，这些发现可以通过确定当前野生种群或实验种群可以使用的额外保护区域来帮助促进冬季范围的扩大，以适应不断增长的种群。
The challenge of conserving viable habitat while simultaneously predicting how land cover may geographically shift with future climate change has put pressure on ecologists and policy‐makers to develop near‐term (several years to a decade) ecological and geospatial predictions. This is particularly relevant for endangered species as ranges adjust to track a changing climate. The whooping crane is vulnerable to these changes, as the overwintering habitat of a small population is susceptible to climate impacts. This study mapped the historical spatial transformation of crane habitat in and around the Aransas National Wildlife Refuge. A time series of ecological niche models was developed to determine the biotic and abiotic factors correlated with crane presence and track how importance has changed over time. The results from the multitemporal models were used to predict areas along the US Gulf Coast where additional unoccupied habitat may be located for crane population expansion and model how the areas may degrade or change as sea levels rise through future climate change scenarios. Findings indicate that the percentage of emergent herbaceous wetland and water are the most important variables influencing crane presence. Sea level rise analysis indicates that potential habitat throughout the Texas–Louisiana Gulf Coast will be impacted considerably by climate change. The lack of large, continuous blocks of usable land cover could limit population expansion and future recovery efforts. However, the findings can help facilitate winter range expansion to accommodate the growing population by identifying additional areas to protect that could be used by the current wild population or experimental populations.