Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework
Land use projections in China under global socioeconomic and emission scenarios: Utilizing a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.04.001
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Lin, Hui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dong, Na;You, Lan;Lin, Hui
全球范围内对共享社会经济路径（SSP）和代表性集中路径（RCPs）下的土地利用变化进行了分析，但对区域和国家土地利用如何响应全球减缓政策的研究较少，这给区域环境适应和决策带来了困难。中国作为一个主要的粮食消费国和生物燃料生产国，在全球情景下，未来土地利用动态将面临很大的不确定性。在此基础上，结合全球变化评估模型（Global Change Assessment Model）和未来土地利用模拟模型（Future Land Use Simulation Model），提出了一个基于GIS的土地利用变化评估框架，并对中国2010 - 2100年的土地利用潜力进行了预测。设计了8种情景，分析了全球社会经济和排放假设对区域减排和土地利用变化的影响。我们重新校准了中国的历史土地利用数据和城市动态，以提高模拟结果与实际区域变化的一致性。同时，土地利用动态的空间降尺度表现出差异性，受到全球假设和本地驱动因子的共同影响，表现出农作物和森林之间的激烈竞争。我们发现，区域作物的变化是敏感的社会经济动态，以及生物能源生产，而不同的碳制度驱动的森林变化以意想不到的方式。此外，在排放情景和社会经济情景之间的土地利用变化分布中，发现了总体异质的景观格局和相似的空间适宜性图。结果表明，该框架考虑了人为管理以及当地环境的详细相互作用，为调查区域土地利用对一系列替代未来路径的反应提供了一种有效的方法。
Land-use changes under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been analyzed globally, but how regional and national land use respond to the global mitigation policies is seldom explored, which poses difficulties in regional environmental adaptation and decision-making. China, as a major food consuming and biofuel production country, would suffer great uncertainties in future land-use dynamics under the global scenarios. Here, we present a scenario-based land-use change assessment framework, integrating Global Change Assessment Model and Future Land Use Simulation Model, to evaluate the potential land use projections of China from 2010 to 2100. Eight scenarios with different combinations of SSPs and radiative forcing targets of RCPs are designed, to analyze the impacts of the global socioeconomic and emission assumptions on regional mitigations and land-use changes. We recalibrated the historical land use data and urban dynamics of China to improve the consistency of modeling results with the actual regional changes. Meanwhile, differences in land use dynamics are demonstrated by spatial downscaling, which are jointly affected by the global assumptions and local driving factors, showing a fierce competition between the crop and forest. We find that the regional crop changes are sensitive to the socioeconomic dynamics as well as the bioenergy production, while different carbon regimes drive the forest changes in unexpected ways. Besides, overall heterogeneous landscape patterns and similar spatial suitability maps are found in distributions of land-use change between the emission and socioeconomic scenarios. The results indicate that this framework embedded with the consideration of anthropogenic managements as well as the detailed interactions of local environments provides an effective way to investigate regional land use response to a range of alternative future pathways.