A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING THE MEAN INCUBATION PERIOD OF TRANSFUSION-ASSOCIATED ACQUIRED-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-SYNDROME
A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING THE MEAN INCUBATION PERIOD OF TRANSFUSION-ASSOCIATED ACQUIRED-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-SYNDROME
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.83.10.3051
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发表时间：
1986-05-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
BREGMAN, DJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
LUI, KJ;LAWRENCE, DN;BREGMAN, DJ
在与输血相关的获得性免疫缺陷综合征(艾滋病)病例中，潜伏期可以确切地确定，潜伏期是指暴露日期和诊断日期之间的间隔时间。然而，由于所有输血感染者的观察期与艾滋病的平均潜伏期相比可能较短，许多潜伏期较长的病例尚未确诊。因此，2.6年的简单平均值往往低估了真正的意义。为了纠正这种低估偏差，我们假设潜伏期的潜在分布是一类广泛的概率密度的成员。然后，通过最大似然法，输血相关艾滋病的平均潜伏期估计为4.5年，90%可信区间为2.6至14.2年。长潜伏期对感染者具有重要后果，并对公共卫生干预和预防政策产生影响。
The incubation period, representing the interval between the date of exposure and the date of diagnosis, can be firmly ascertained in transfusion-associated cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). However, because the observation period of all transfusion-infected persons may be short compared with the average incubation period for AIDS, many cases with long incubation periods have not yet been diagnosed. Thus, the simple average of 2.6 years tends to underestimate the true meaning. To correct for this underestimation bias, we assumed that the underlying distribution of the incubation periods is a member of a broad class of probability densities. Then, by maximum likelihood techniques, the mean incubation period for transfusion-associated AIDS was estimated to be 4.5 years, with the 90% confidence interval ranging from 2.6 to 14.2 years. The long incubation period has important consequences for infected individuals and implications for public health intervention and prevention policy.