The Gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: Empirical data from casinos
The Gambler's fallacy and the hot hand: Empirical data from casinos
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DOI：
10.1007/s11166-005-1153-2
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发表时间：
2005-05-01
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Sundali, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Croson, R;Sundali, J
对不确定性下的决策的研究表明，直觉上的随机性与偶然性规律是有系统的背离的。在实验室中，有两种涉及随机事件序列的偏离，即赌徒谬误和热手。本研究提出了从外地的结果，使用录像带的顾客在赌场赌博，检查这些偏见的存在和程度的自然设置。我们在我们的人群中发现了小但显著的偏差，与实验室中观察到的一致。
Research on decision making under uncertainty demonstrates that intuitive ideas of randomness depart systematically from the laws of chance. Two such departures involving random sequences of events have been documented in the laboratory, the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand. This study presents results from the field, using videotapes of patrons gambling in a casino, to examine the existence and extent of these biases in naturalistic settings. We find small but significant biases in our population, consistent with those observed in the lab.