The velocity of climate change
The velocity of climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nature08649
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发表时间：
2009-12-24
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Ackerly, David D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Loarie, Scott R.;Duffy, Philip B.;Ackerly, David D.
植物和动物的范围正在移动，以应对最近的气候变化（1）。随着气温上升，“无处可去”的生态系统，如山脉，被认为受到更大的威胁（2，3）。然而，物种的生存可能取决于气候的最终持久性（4，5）与移动气候保持同步。在这里，我们提出了一个新的指数的温度变化的速度（公里年（-1）），来自空间梯度（摄氏度公里（-1））和多模式集合预测的温度上升率（摄氏度年（-1））在21世纪。这一指数代表保持恒定温度所需的沿地球表面沿着的瞬时局部速度，全球平均值为0.42公里/年（-1）（A1 B排放情景）。由于地形的影响，温度变化的速度是最低的山区生物群落，如热带和亚热带针叶林（0.08公里年（-1）），温带针叶林，山地草原。速度最高的淹没草原（1.26公里年（-1）），红树林和沙漠。高流速表明，只有8%的全球保护区的气候停留时间超过100年。小型保护区加剧了地中海型和温带针叶林生物群落的问题。大型保护区可能会缓解沙漠生物群落的问题。这些结果表明，减少气候变化造成的生物多样性损失的管理策略。山地景观可能有效地庇护许多物种到下一个世纪。在其他地方，减少排放，扩大保护区网络（6），或努力增加物种迁移可能是必要的（7）。
The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate(1). As temperatures rise, ecosystems with 'nowhere to go', such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened(2,3). However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate's ultimate persistence(4,5). Here we present a new index of the velocity of temperature change (km yr(-1)), derived from spatial gradients (degrees C km(-1)) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (degrees C yr(-1)) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth's surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr(-1) (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08 km yr(-1)), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grasslands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr(-1)), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas(6), or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary(7).