Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
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DOI：
10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Edmunds, W John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jombart, Thibaut;van Zandvoort, Kevin;Edmunds, W John
我们根据之前没有报告的人群中新报告的死亡人数估算了 COVID-19 病例数。我们的结果表明，当发生单例死亡时，该人群中可能存在数百至数千例病例。这表明目前通过接触者追踪进行遏制将具有挑战性，应考虑其他应对策略。我们的方法是在一个公开的、用户友好的在线工具中实施的。我们根据之前没有报告的人群中新报告的死亡人数估算了 COVID-19 病例数。我们的结果表明，当发生单例死亡时，该人群中可能存在数百至数千例病例。这表明目前通过接触者追踪进行遏制将具有挑战性，应考虑其他应对策略。我们的方法是在一个公开的、用户友好的在线工具中实施的。
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.