Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns
Spatio-temporal dynamics of global H5N1 outbreaks match bird migration patterns
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DOI：
10.4081/gh.2009.211
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Prins, Herbert H. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Si, Yali;Skidmore, Andrew K.;Prins, Herbert H. T.
高致病性禽流感H5N1在家禽、野鸟和人类中的全球传播构成了重大的大流行威胁和严重的公共卫生风险。一个有效的监测和疾病控制系统依赖于对病毒传播模式和传播机制的了解。H5N1的时空聚类分析。疫情被用来确定全球范围和较长时期内的时空模式。分析了解释H5N1病毒传播的潜在机制以及野鸟的作用。在2003年12月至2006年12月期间，H5N1流感的三个全球流行阶段被确定。这些H5 N1疫情表现出明显的季节性模式，冬季和早春疫情密度高（即，十月至三月）。在第一和第二阶段，只有东亚澳大利亚飞行路线受到影响。在第三阶段，H5N1病毒开始出现在其他四个飞行路线：中亚飞行路线、黑海地中海飞行路线、东大西洋飞行路线和东非西亚飞行路线。六个疾病集群模式沿着这些飞行路线被发现与野生鸟类的季节性迁徙。H5N1病毒的传播，如时空集群所示，与野鸟的迁徙模式有关。因此，野生鸟类可能在H5N1的远距离传播中发挥重要作用。在已知野鸟越冬的地点和候鸟出现的时候也发现了疾病集群。这导致了野生鸟类也可能参与短距离传播H5N1病毒的建议。
The global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in poultry, wild birds and humans, poses a significant pandemic threat and a serious public health risk. An efficient Surveillance and disease control system relies oil the understanding of the dispersion patterns and spreading mechanisms of the virus. A space-time cluster analysis of H5N1. outbreaks was used to identify spatio-temporal patterns at a global scale and over an extended period of time. Potential mechanisms explaining the spread of the H5N1 virus, and the role of wild birds, were analyzed. Between December 2003 and December 2006, three global epidemic phases of H5N1 influenza were identified. These H5N1 outbreaks showed a clear seasonal pattern, with a high density Of Outbreaks in winter and early spring (i.e., October to March). In phase I and II only the East Asia Australian flyway was affected. During phase III, the H5N1 viruses started to appear in four other flyways: the Central Asian flyway, the Black Sea Mediterranean flyway, the East Atlantic flyway and the East Africa West Asian flyway. Six disease cluster patterns along these flyways were found to be associated with the seasonal migration of wild birds. The spread of the H5N1 virus, as demonstrated by the space-time clusters, was associated with the patterns of migration of wild birds. Wild birds may therefore play an important role in the spread of H5N1 over long distances. Disease clusters were also detected at sites where wild birds are known to overwinter and at times when migratory birds were present. This leads to the suggestion that wild birds may also be involved in spreading the H5N1 virus over short distances.