The marketability of electric vehicles: battery performance and consumer demand for driving range
The marketability of electric vehicles: battery performance and consumer demand for driving range
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电动汽车的适销性：电池性能和消费者对续驶里程的需求
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Turrentine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Kurani;D. Sperling;T. Turrentine
本文报道了一项为期四年的电动汽车（EV）需求研究。我们专注于一个新定义的细分市场：多车“混合动力家庭”，其中一辆车的行驶里程有限。我们设计了一个四阶段的邮件调查，其中包括电动汽车使用和充电的视频，信息材料，为期3天的旅行日记，以及一系列的车辆选择问题。受访者可以选择推进系统、车身风格和尺寸、练习场和其他功能。提供的各种练习场测试了电动汽车需求将按练习场需求细分的假设。电动汽车的价格各不相同，但往往比同类汽油车高出数千美元。调查问卷在加州的6个大都市地区的740多辆车的家庭。应答率为61%。在两种车辆选择方案中的第二种方案中，37%的受访者选择了电池驱动的电动汽车，续航里程从40英里到150英里不等; 10%的人选择了混合动力电动汽车，续航里程高达180英里; 19%的人选择了续航里程为80-120英里的有限续航里程天然气汽车。总的来说，66%的人选择了有限范围的车辆。将这些选择转化为年度汽车销量，我们发现混合动力家庭购买纯电动汽车将占年度轻型汽车销量的7-15%。基于电动汽车动力电池的发展现状，我们从这些结果中推断，任何剩余的障碍，以市场电动汽车是无关的能力，现有的电池提供足够的驱动范围。
This paper reports on a four-year study of electric vehicle (EV) demand. We focused on a newly defined market segment: multi-car "hybrid households," in which one car has limited driving range. We designed a four-stage mail survey that included a video of EV use and recharging, informational material, a 3-day trip diary, and a series of vehicle choice questions. Respondents had a choice of propulsion systems, body styles and sizes, driving ranges, and other features. The variety of driving ranges offered tested the hypothesis that demand for EVs will be segmented by demand for driving range. Prices of EVs varied, but tended to be up to several thousand dollars higher than those of comparable gasoline vehicles. The questionnaires were administered to 740 multi-car households in 6 metropolitan areas of California. The response rate was 61%. In the second of two vehicle choice scenarios, 37% of the respondents chose battery-powered EVs, with ranges varying from 40 to 150 miles; 10% chose hybrid electrics with ranges up to 180 miles; and 19% chose limited-range natural gas vehicles with ranges of 80-120 miles. Altogether, 66% chose limited-range vehicles. Translating these choices into annual vehicle sales, we find that purchases of pure EVs by hybrid households would account for 7-15% of annual light duty vehicle sales. Based on the current state of EV traction battery development, we infer from these results that any remaining barriers to marketable EVs are not related to the ability of existing batteries to provide adequate driving range.