How long will we live?
How long will we live?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00144.x
复制
发表时间：
2006-12-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Bongaarts, John
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bongaarts, John
自1800年以来，高收入国家的出生时预期寿命翻了一番，从大约40岁增加到近80岁。悲观者预计这些改善将很快结束，因为我们正在接近寿命的生物极限，而乐观者则预测继续快速改善，不受限制。为了阐明这一争议，对16个高收入国家的青少年、背景和老年预期寿命组成部分的过去趋势进行了研究。人们发现，1950年以前传统预期寿命的大幅增加主要是由于青少年死亡率和背景死亡率的下降。1950年后，由于青少年和背景死亡率的下降，预期寿命的改善速度放缓，但老年死亡率下降的速度比以前更快，因此成为出生时预期寿命上升的主要原因。吸烟在过去半个世纪中的作用也被量化。在未来，背景死亡率和青少年死亡率对寿命的影响将很小或没有影响，因为它们已经达到非常低的水平。然而，没有证据表明接近极限，由于老年死亡率的持续下降，预期寿命可能会以每十年约1.5岁的速度提高。
Since 1800 life expectancy at birth in high-income countries has doubled from about 40 years to nearly 80 years. Pessimists expect these improvements to end soon because we are approaching biological limits to longevity, whereas optimists predict continued rapid improvements without limits. To shed light on this controversy, past trends in the juvenile, background, and senescent components of life expectancy are examined in 16 high-income countries. Large increases in conventional life expectancy before 1950 are found to be primarily attributable to reductions in juvenile and background mortality. After 1950 the rate of improvement in life expectancy slowed because of diminishing declines in juvenile and background mortality, but senescent mortality fell more rapidly than before, thus becoming the main cause of rising life expectancy at birth. The role of smoking in the past half-century is also quantified. In the future, background mortality and juvenile mortality will have little or no impact on longevity because they have reached very low levels. There is, however, no evidence of approaching limits, and life expectancy will likely improve at a rate of approximately 1.5 years per decade owing to continued declines in senescent mortality.