The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3
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发表时间：
2022-08-11
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Laaksonen, Ari
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rantanen, Mika;Karpechko, Alexey Yu;Laaksonen, Ari
对观测和CMIP5和CMIP6模拟的分析表明，在过去的40年里，北极放大效应——北极与全球变暖的比率——比想象的要强烈得多，在气候模式中可能被低估了。近几十年来，北极的变暖速度比世界其他地区快得多，这种现象被称为北极放大。许多研究报告称，北极的变暖速度是全球平均速度的两倍、两倍以上，甚至三倍。在这里，我们通过使用覆盖北极地区的几个观测数据集表明，在过去的43年里，北极变暖的速度几乎是全球变暖速度的四倍，这比文献中普遍报道的要高。我们将观测到的北极放大比与最新气候模式模拟的比值进行了比较，发现1979-2021年观测到的4倍变暖比在气候模式模拟中是极其罕见的。如果在较长的时间内计算，则观察到的放大比和模拟的放大比更加一致；然而，1979年以前观测的不确定性使比较变得模糊。我们的研究结果表明，最近北极变暖比率的四倍要么是一个极不可能发生的事件，要么是气候模式系统地倾向于低估这种放大。
Over the past four decades, Arctic Amplification - the ratio of Arctic to global warming - has been much stronger than thought, and is probably underestimated in climate models, suggest analyses of observations and the CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations.In recent decades, the warming in the Arctic has been much faster than in the rest of the world, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. Numerous studies report that the Arctic is warming either twice, more than twice, or even three times as fast as the globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover the Arctic region, that during the last 43 years the Arctic has been warming nearly four times faster than the globe, which is a higher ratio than generally reported in literature. We compared the observed Arctic amplification ratio with the ratio simulated by state-of-the-art climate models, and found that the observed four-fold warming ratio over 1979-2021 is an extremely rare occasion in the climate model simulations. The observed and simulated amplification ratios are more consistent with each other if calculated over a longer period; however the comparison is obscured by observational uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate that the recent four-fold Arctic warming ratio is either an extremely unlikely event, or the climate models systematically tend to underestimate the amplification.