Climate variability reveals complex events for tularaemia dynamics in man and mammals
Climate variability reveals complex events for tularaemia dynamics in man and mammals
复制标题
气候变化揭示了人类和哺乳动物兔热病动态的复杂事件
DOI：
10.5751/es-01303-100122
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Tärnvik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Palo;C. Ahlm;A. Tärnvik
土拉菌病是由土拉热弗朗西斯菌引起的，但天然宿主尚不清楚，对哺乳动物和人类爆发的环境条件也知之甚少。本研究分析了北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数、瑞典报告的兔热病人间病例数和野兔密度之间的同步性。滞后2年的气候变化解释为土拉菌病病例数量随时间变化的单一因素~ 27%。低NAO指数，表明寒冷的冬天，在即将到来的夏天，河流中的低水流量与2年后的兔热病人类病例数高。山兔的数量与NAO或兔热病病例数无关。山兔数量的变化与人类病例数量呈负相关，表明该物种对疾病的敏感性。水环境中的低周转率可能在某个时间点触发一系列事件，导致F.土拉热病通过未知的宿主和/或媒介影响人类和哺乳动物。NAO指数可能随着未来气候变暖而增加，预计不会促进瑞典更高频率的兔热病暴发。
Tularemia is caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, but the natural reservoir is unknown and environmental conditions for outbreaks in mammals and man are poorly understood. The present study analyzed the synchrony between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the number of human cases of tularemia reported in Sweden, and the density of hares. Climate variation at a lag of 2 yr explained as a single factor ~ 27% of the variation in the number of tularemia cases over time. A low NAO index, indicating cold winters, and low water flow in rivers during the coming summer were associated with high numbers of human cases of tularemia 2 yr later. The number of mountain hares was not related to NAO or to the number of cases of tularemia. The change in mountain hare numbers was negatively associated with the number of human cases, showing the sensitivity of this species to the disease. Low turnover in water environments may at some point in time trigger a chain of events leading to increased replication of F. tularensis via unknown reservoirs and/or vectors that affect humans and mammals. A possible increase in the NAO index with a future warmer climate would not be expected to facilitate a higher frequency of tularemia outbreaks in Sweden.