The effects of low-intensity supervision for lower-risk probationers: updated results from a randomized controlled trial
The effects of low-intensity supervision for lower-risk probationers: updated results from a randomized controlled trial
复制标题
低强度监督对低风险缓刑犯的影响：随机对照试验的最新结果
DOI：
10.1080/0735648x.2012.679874
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Daniel T.L. Kent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Barnes;Jordan M. Hyatt;Lindsay Ahlman;Daniel T.L. Kent
本文探讨了减少监管强度的缓刑犯谁被确定，使用随机森林预测模型，提出了一个低风险犯下新的严重罪行的影响。它扩展了先前报道的费城低强度社区监督实验的结果，这是一项从2007年到2008年进行的随机对照试验。我们更新了之前一年的累犯结果，以包括18个月的随访数据，并评估了早期分析中没有的其他措施，包括药物检测结果，官员接触合规性，违反缓刑规定和逃避监管。最新的分析肯定了以前的研究结果，表明降低监管强度不会增加低风险缓刑犯新犯罪的流行率或频率，似乎不会对公共安全造成任何额外的威胁。我们的结论是，低强度的监督，当与有效和可靠的风险预测，提供社区监督机构管理大型罪犯人口的一个强大的工具，使机构集中稀缺的资源，高风险的罪犯，也许减少行政成本。需要进行进一步研究，以量化确切的成本削减，并确定监督犯罪者的最佳手段，这些犯罪者的风险水平使他们不符合低强度监督的条件。
This paper explores the effects of reduced supervision intensity for probationers who were identified, using a random forest forecasting model, as presenting a low risk of committing new serious offenses. It expands on previously reported results of the Philadelphia Low Intensity Community Supervision Experiment, a randomized controlled trial performed from 2007 through 2008. We update our previous one-year recidivism results to include 18 months of follow-up data, and assess additional measures that were not available in earlier analyses, including drug-testing results, officer contact compliance, probation violations, and absconding from supervision. The updated analysis affirms previous findings, showing that reduced supervision intensity does not increase the prevalence or frequency of new offending by low-risk probationers, and does not appear to result in any additional threats to public safety. We conclude that low-intensity supervision, when used in concert with valid and reliable risk forecasting, offers community supervision agencies a powerful tool for managing large offender populations, allowing the agencies to focus scarce resources on higher-risk offenders and perhaps reduce administrative costs. Further research is needed to quantify the exact cost reductions, and to determine the best means of supervising offenders whose risk level makes them ineligible for low-intensity supervision.