Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.marpol.2015.07.015
复制
发表时间：
2015-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Paterson, David M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hyder, Kieran;Rossberg, Axel G.;Paterson, David M.
海洋立法越来越复杂，国家和区域立法框架具体规定了基于海洋生态系统的管理。陆架-海洋社区和生态系统模型（以下称为生态系统模型）是提供基于生态系统的管理的核心，但与其他国家相比，欧洲和联合王国的决策者对模型产品的吸收和使用有限。在这项研究中，吸收和使用生态系统模型，以支持海洋环境管理的挑战进行了评估，以英国的能力为例。英国在海洋生态系统建模方面具有广泛的能力，至少有14种不同的模型支持管理，但很少有支持政策或管理决策的生态系统建模的例子。为了更好地理解可以使用生态系统模型解决的政策和管理问题，召开了一个研讨会，汇集了顾问，评估员，生物学家，社会科学家，经济学家，建模师，统计学家，政策制定者和资助者。确定了一些无需进一步开发模型即可满足的政策要求，其中包括：将环境变化归因于基本驱动因素，整合模型和观测结果以制定更有效的监测方案，评估不同管理目标的指标绩效，以及立法的成本和效益。在存在许多模型的情况下，正在开发多模型集成，但模型结构非常多样化，使得组合输出的标准化方法成为一项重大挑战，并且需要新的方法来描述，分析和可视化不确定性。需要加强与社会和经济制度的联系，以扩大可以处理的与政策有关的问题的范围。还必须改善政策界和建模界之间的沟通，以便对生态系统模型的优势和局限性有共同的理解。皇冠版权所有（C）2015由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。保留所有权利。
Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.