Changing Settlement Pattern of Marginal Remote Villages in Snowy Area
Changing Settlement Pattern of Marginal Remote Villages in Snowy Area
复制标题
雪域边缘偏远村庄聚落格局的变化
DOI：
10.2750/arp.13.28
复制
发表时间：
1994
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Natsuo Numano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Natsuo Numano
为了阐明日本人口减少的农村居民点近期人口变化的因素，本文首先从1970年农业普查的所有农业居民点中，在东北和北陆地区的8个县的雪域地区，确定了1301个边缘偏远村庄。其次，运用Hayashi量子理论Ⅰ和自动交互作用检测器（AID）的方法，揭示了70年代农户数量变化趋势的一些特征及其一般因素。然后将两组特定的聚落，即对量子理论Ⅰ估计的住户数具有最大正负残差值的聚落，分别归类为“幸存组”和“衰落组”。最后，分析了影响大沉降残差形成的因素。结果发现，积雪深度和因雪而与社会隔绝的天数对20世纪70年代雪区边缘山村家庭的增加/减少状况有很大影响。此外，与家庭农场管理和非农业部门劳动力有关的经济条件，以及与区域设施的可达性有关的村庄位置也是重要因素。农业和交通条件经常被市政府官员提到，这是大残留村庄特殊增加/减少状态的原因。在“幸存群体”中，最常被指出的是一个主观因素，即一个共同体的团结与合作的牢固性。区域开发或旅游开发的实施也经常被认为是“幸存群体”特殊性的具体因素。在雪域边缘山村的趋势中发现了一个很大的差异，这可能无法用一般因素来解释。这种差异可能反映了村民的一些主观因素。边缘村庄成功生存的可能性应该保持在这个方差范围内。
To clarify the factors of recent population change in depopulated rural settlements of Japan, this paper first defines 1, 301 marginal remote villages from all agricultural settlements listed in the 1970 agricultural census, in the snowy area of 8 prefectures of Tohoku and Hokuriku districts. Second, it reveals some characteristics of the changing tendency in number of households during the 1970s and their general factors by using the methodology of Hayashi's quantum theory I and Automatic Interaction Detector (AID) . Two groups of particular settlements, that have largest plus or minus values of residuals about the estimation of households number by quantum theory I are then classified as “surviving group” and “declining group” respectively. Finally, factors that effect the formation of large residuals of particular settlements are analyzed. As a consequence, following findings are obtained.Snow depth and the number of days of social isolation with snow strongly affected households' increase/decrease status of marginal mountain villages belonging to the snowy area during the 1970s. Moreover, economic conditions related to family farm management and labor for non-agricultural sector, and location of villages in relation with the accessibility for regional facilities are also found to be important factors.Agricultural and transportational conditions are frequently mentioned as the reason of peculiar increase/decrease status of large residual villages by municipal officials answered to a postal inquiry. In “surviving group”, a subjective factor namely a solidity of unity and cooperation in a community is most frequently pointed out. Implementation of regional or tourist development is also frequently suggested as a concrete factor of the peculiarity of “surviving group”.A large variance which may not be perfectly explained with a consideration of general factors is found in the trend of marginal mountain villages in the snowy area. The variance may reflect some subjective factors of village inhabitants. Possibilities of successful survival of marginal villages should remain within this range of the variance.