A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan
A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-016-2534-3
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发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Lijiao Yang;Y. Kajitani;H. Tatano;Xinyu Jiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lijiao Yang;Y. Kajitani;H. Tatano;Xinyu Jiang
本研究提出了一种估计工业部门业务中断损失的概率方法，作为当前方法的延伸。功能形式和参数的选择和校准是根据 2000 年日本东海大雨时位于受灾地区的企业获得的调查数据。东海暴雨是罕见的袭击人口稠密和工业化地区的事件。在业务中断损失的估算中，选用功能脆弱性曲线和加速故障时间模型来估算生产能力受损程度和生产恢复时间。研究分析了重要的解释变量，例如淹没深度、明显的脆弱性、每个部门的恢复力特征以及模型的拟合精度。获得的函数和估计参数可以用作估计业务中断损失的概率分布的基准，特别是在城市洪涝灾害的情况下。
This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.