Environomic modeling and multi-objective optimisation of integrated energy systems for power and cogeneration
Environomic modeling and multi-objective optimisation of integrated energy systems for power and cogeneration
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DOI：
10.5075/epfl-thesis-3657
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hongtao Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hongtao Li
当前和未来的动态，环境立法和交易市场，由于市场自由化或资源短缺造成的燃料和电力价格，以及电力/热电联产技术的创新，对综合能源系统的最佳设计和操作评价提出了巨大的挑战。因此，为电力和热电联产技术开发新的设计工具是指导本论文工作的关键问题，这成为本论文研究的中心问题。基于“环境建模”，在瑞士洛桑联邦技术学院工业能源系统实验室先前工作的基础上，进一步开发了决定性的标准分解和多目标优化方法。它已被用于评估在二氧化碳减排背景下的电力和/或热电联产综合能源系统的最佳设计，或用于解决电力负荷调度问题。通过将特定的投资成本与二氧化碳排放率作为两个目标，已开发的方法已被实施，以“典型”天然气联合循环电厂的环境性能，市场上可用的燃气轮机用于电力和/或热电联产应用，在二氧化碳减排的背景下。通过简单的后优化分析，从派生的“Typification Map”中成功处理了在基于项目的评估中造成困难的动态外生参数，如燃料价格、年营业时间和利率。所开发的方法还被用于研究《京都议定书》中定义的清洁发展机制（CDM）在中国天然气联合循环（NGCC）项目中的潜力，包括单独发电和热电联产应用。研究表明，在后一种情况下，NGCC电厂需要达到盈亏平衡的认证减排（CER）价格，即14.5美元/吨二氧化碳至16.5美元/吨二氧化碳，才能与燃煤电厂竞争。当NGCC电厂用于热电联产时，还表明由于热销售的利润，可以预期降低盈亏平衡的CER价格。根据项目的经济标准（如电力成本或供暖成本）同时优化二氧化碳排放率或年度总二氧化碳排放量，并对处理燃料和电力价格动态的敏感性分析已应用于两个基于项目的案例研究。它们的上层结构甚至更复杂，包括电力进口或出口的选择。对于具有可能的二氧化碳捕集选项的先进天然气联合循环（NGCC）工厂，所获得的结果提供了发电成本与二氧化碳排放绩效之间关系的信息。本办法适用于电力/热电联产技术供应商、公用事业所有者或项目投资者，以及包括排放交易在内的二氧化碳缓解方案的决策者。其中一个有趣的结果表明，由于二氧化碳捕集的投资成本相对较高，已经确定了高达69美元/吨的二氧化碳税或二氧化碳配额价格的盈亏平衡价值，可以使400MW的NGCC工厂实现二氧化碳捕集。以综合供热厂为例，表明供热燃料比消耗量可显著降低至19.8 - 21.4 [kg煤当量]。/GJ]，显著减少了相关的排放，具体的加热总成本分别为3.1美元和6.6美元/GJ。通过实施热泵和/或热电联产技术，无论是否允许输出电力，都可以实现这些范围性能。“环境建模和多目标优化”方法也被用于给定发电系统的负荷调度，该发电系统由不同燃料消耗、排放和成本性能的发电机组组成。所获得的每日二氧化碳排放量与每日发电成本的对比，为运营商提供了更大的灵活性和结构化的知识，以便在不同的环境监管情况下做出最佳的电力调度解决方案。
Current and future dynamics, of environmental legislations and trading market, of the fuel and electricity prices due to the market liberalization or resource shortages, and of the innovations of power/cogeneration technologies, impose great challenges on optimal design and operation evaluation of integrated energy systems. Developing new design tools for power and cogeneration technologies is therefore a key concern guiding the work presented in this thesis, which becomes the central problem that has been studied in this work. Based on 'Environomic Modeling', a decisive criteria decomposition and multi-objective optimization approach has been further developed based upon the previous work in the Laboratory for Industrial Energy Systems of the Swiss Federal Institute Technology of Lausanne. It has been implemented to evaluate the optimal design of integrated energy systems for power and/or cogeneration in the CO2 abatement context, or for solving the power load dispatching problems. By taking the specific investment cost versus the CO2 emission rate as the two objectives, the developed approach has been implemented to 'Typify' the environomic performance of natural gas combined cycle plants with market available gas turbines for both power and/or cogeneration applications, in the context of CO2 abatement. The dynamic exogenous parameters that impose difficulties in project-based evaluation, such as the fuel price, annual operating hours and interest rate, have been successfully treated through simple post optimization analysis from the derived 'Typification Map'. The developed methodology has also been used to study the potential of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) defined in the Kyoto Protocol for the analyzed natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) projects in China, for both power alone and cogeneration applications. It is shown that in the latter case, a break-even Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price of 14.5 US$/tonCO2 to 16.5 US$/tonCO2 will be required to make NGCC plants able to compete with coal plants. When a NGCC plant is used for cogeneration, it is also shown that a reduced break-even CER price can be expected due to the profits from heat selling. Simultaneous optimization of CO2 emission rate or the annual total CO2 emissions, against the economic criteria of the project, e.g. cost of electricity or heating specific cost with sensitivity analyses for dealing with the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices have been applied to two project-based case studies. Those have even more complex superstructures including options of electricity importation or exportation. For the case of advanced natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with a possible CO2 capture option, the obtained results provide information on the relationship between power generation cost and CO2 emission performance. This approach is intended for power/cogeneration technology suppliers, for utility owners or project investors, and for policy makers in the context of CO2 mitigation schemes including emission trading. One of the interesting results shows that a break-even value as high as 69 US$/ton has been identified for the CO2 tax or price of CO2 allowance that can bring a 400MW NGCC plant with CO2 capture into practice, due to the relatively high investment cost of CO2 capturing. For the case of an integrated heating plant, it is shown that the heating fuel specific consumption can be dramatically reduced down to 19.8 - 21.4 [kg coal.equ./GJ] with a significant reduction of associated emissions at a heating specific total cost of respectively 3.1 and 6.6 [US$/GJ]. These range performances are achieved whether power exportation is allowed or not, by implementing heat pump and/or cogeneration technologies. The 'Environomic modeling and multi-objective optimization' methodology has also been implemented for load dispatching for a given power generation system composed with power generation units associated with different fuel consumption, emission and cost performances. The obtained daily CO2 emissions versus daily power generation costs Pareto Optimal Frontiers (POFs) give the operator an increased flexibility and structured knowledge to take the decisions on the best power dispatching solution under different environmental regulation circumstances.