BABY BOOM, POPULATION AGING, AND CAPITAL-MARKETS
BABY BOOM, POPULATION AGING, AND CAPITAL-MARKETS
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DOI：
10.1086/296629
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发表时间：
1994-04-01
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
CHEN, ZW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BAKSHI, GS;CHEN, ZW
本文检验了人口结构变化对资本市场的影响。生命周期投资假说指出，在早期阶段，投资者将更多的财富配置在房地产上，然后在后期转向金融资产。因此，股市应该会上涨，但房地产市场应该会随着平均年龄的增长而下降，这一预测在1945年后时期得到了支持。第二个假设是投资者的风险厌恶程度随着年龄的增长而增加，通过估计由此产生的欧拉方程来检验，并在1945年后的时期得到支持。研究发现，平均年龄的上升预示着风险溢价的上升。
This article tests how demographic changes affect capital markets. The life-cycle investment hypothesis states that at an early stage an investor allocates more wealth in housing and then switches to financial assets at, a later stage. Consequently, the stock market should rise but the housing market should decline with the average age, a prediction supported in the post-1945 period. The second hypothesis that an investor's risk aversion increases with age is tested by estimating the resulting Euler equation and supported in the post-1945 period. A rise in average age is found to predict a rise in risk premiums.