Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London
Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1105-4
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Birkin, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenkins, Katie;Hall, Jim;Birkin, Mark
高温和热浪会增加健康风险、死亡率和个人不适，从而造成巨大的社会影响。由于城市热岛效应，以及人员、资产和经济活动的高度集中和日益集中，这些影响在城市中加剧。高温带来的风险现在已被广泛认识到，但由于对适应选择的好处量化不足以及相关的不确定性，相应的政策回应的动力和实施受到了抑制。这项研究利用高空间分辨率的城市温度概率预测以及人口变化预测，来提供热对城市社会影响的概率风险评估。这项研究的重点是大伦敦及其周边地区，评估死亡风险、住宅建筑的热不适以及综合框架内的适应选择。气候变化预计将增加未来与高温相关的死亡率和居住不适。然而，将温度响应函数调整1-2摄氏度，以模拟适应和驯化，与没有适应的情景相比，在测试的情景中，与高温相关的年死亡率降低了32%-69%。对于居住不适，适应也有类似的好处。该研究还强调了通过减少反照率和人为热排放来缓解城市热岛可能会在降低死亡率和居住不适方面带来的其他好处。
High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1-2 A degrees C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32-69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have.