Real Net Worth of Households in Germany Fell between 2003 and 2013
Real Net Worth of Households in Germany Fell between 2003 and 2013
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2003 年至 2013 年间德国家庭实际净资产下降
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Westermeier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Grabka;C. Westermeier
研究表明，德国家庭财富的发展通常基于名义价值，而不考虑价格上涨，因此不考虑这些资产的实际购买力。DIW柏林在最近的一次评估中考虑了通胀因素，得出的结论是，从2003年到2013年，德国家庭的平均净资产以真实的计算下降了近15%。这一数字基于联邦统计局的德国收入和支出调查（Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe，EVS），得到了德国社会经济小组（SOEP）研究数据的证实，并显示2002年至2012年期间，真实的资产下降了11%以上。特别是，业主自用的真实的房地产的估计公允价值表现疲软可能是导致这一下降的原因。与DIW柏林的调查结果相反，国民账户体系（VGR）显示，2003年至2013年期间，真实的净资产增长了约19%。这一差异可能是由于所使用的估值方法不同。最富有的个人所拥有的财富的增长不太可能是真实的资产总量下降的原因：虽然EVS和SOEP样本没有提供任何关于最富裕个人财富发展的细节，因为这些要么没有意义，要么根本没有出现在调查中，根据《经理人杂志》提供的信息对财富资产持有人进行的分析表明，2007年至2012年期间，他们的资产平均停滞不前。成功积累财富的相关因素是定期储蓄、资本收益，特别是遗产和礼物。此外，每当债务人按照合同偿还债务时，私人家庭持有的净资产价值就会大幅上升。
Studies indicating the development of household wealth in Germany are typically based on nominal values and do not take account of price rises and thus the actual purchasing power of those assets. DIW Berlin took inflation into account in a recent evaluation and concluded that the average net worth of households in Germany decreased in real terms by almost 15 percent from 2003 to 2013. This figure, based on the German Income and Expenditure Survey (Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe, EVS) of the Federal Statistical Office, is confirmed by data from the German Socio- Economic Panel (SOEP) study and shows that real assets declined by more than 11 percent between 2002 and 2012. In particular, the weak performance of the estimated fair value of owner-occupied real estate is likely to have contributed to this decline. In contrast to DIW Berlin’s findings, the national accounts system (Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen, VGR) indicated an increase in real net worth of around 19 percent between 2003 and 2013. This discrepancy is likely due to the different valuation methods used. The development of wealth held by the most affluent individuals is not likely to be responsible for the decline in the overall volume of real assets: Although the EVS and SOEP samples do not provide any details concerning the development of wealth held by the most affluent individuals, because these are either not meaningful or did not appear in the surveys at all, an analysis of the fortunes asset-holders based on information provided by manager magazin suggests that between 2007 and 2012 their assets stagnated on average. The relevant factors for successful wealth accumulation are regular saving, capital gains, and, in particular, inheritances and gifts. In addition, net asset values held by private households rise considerably whenever debtors pay off their liabilities in accordance with contracts.