Modelling geographic distribution and detecting conservation gaps in Italy for the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina
Modelling geographic distribution and detecting conservation gaps in Italy for the threatened beetle Rosalia alpina
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jnc.2012.10.003
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发表时间：
2013-04-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Russo, Danilo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bosso, Luciano;Rebelo, Hugo;Russo, Danilo
只有在场的模型可以帮助保护和管理受威胁的、难以捉摸的物种。我们建立了意大利及邻近地区稀有天牛Rosalia Longicorn Rosalia alpina L.的Maxent模型，并确定了最能解释该物种大规模发生的变量。一旦成功验证，我们使用该模型来(A)评估当前意大利高山甲虫分布区的碎片化程度；以及(B)量化在现有国家保护区(Natura 2000网络、公园和保护区)内甲虫最有可能存在的意大利领土的数量。Low(0.9)仅覆盖2.5%。预测高山松材线虫主要发生在1000-1700ma.s.l的阔叶落叶林中。春季最高气温温暖，5月和11月降水量为80毫米。我们发现破碎化程度很高，林隙主要覆盖着农田或其他不适合的栖息地。超过52%的潜在栖息地没有得到保护。虽然Natura 2000网络保护了42%的潜在栖息地，但公园和保护区的覆盖率不到29%。为了保护高山红杉，我们敦促建立或恢复森林走廊，以弥补我们的模型检测到的原本不透水的缺口，并为意大利领土上仍然基本上未受保护的地区提供保护，例如将其纳入更多的Natura 2000遗址。像我们这样的模式也可能有助于将实地调查集中在选定的地区，以节省资源并提高调查成功率。(C)2012年爱思唯尔股份有限公司。版权所有。
Presence-only models can aid conservation and management of threatened, elusive species. We developed a Maxent model for the rare cerambycid beetle Rosalia longicorn Rosalia alpina L. in Italy and neighbouring regions and identified the variables best explaining the species' occurrence on a large scale. Once successfully validated, we used the model to (a) evaluate the current degree of fragmentation of R. alpina range in Italy; and (b) quantify the amount of the Italian territory with the highest probability of beetle presence within the existing national conservation areas (Natura 2000 network, parks and reserves). Low (0.9) covered only 2.5%. R. alpina was predicted to occur mostly in broadleaved deciduous forest at 1000-1700 m a.s.l. with warm maximum spring temperatures and May and November precipitation >80 mm. We found a high degree of fragmentation; gaps were mainly covered with farmland or other unsuitable habitat. Over 52% of potential habitat is unprotected. While the Natura 2000 network protects 42% of potential habitat, parks and reserve covers less than 29%. To preserve R. alpina, we urge to create, or restore, forest corridors to bridge the otherwise impermeable gaps our model detected and grant protection to the still largely unprotected area of the Italian territory e. g. by including it in further Natura 2000 sites. Models such as ours may also help focus field surveys in selected areas to save resources and increase survey success. (C) 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.