Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over Massachusetts coas
Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over Massachusetts coas
复制标题
海平面上升对马萨诸塞州海岸未来风暴引发的沿海洪水的影响
DOI：
10.1007/c11069-020-04467-x
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Xu, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, C.;Lin, Z.;Beardsley, R. C.;Shyka, T.;Zhang, Y.;Xu, Q.;Qi, J.;Lin, H.;Xu, D.
飓风（热带气旋）和东北风暴（热带气旋）是马萨诸塞州海岸两个主要的洪水风险风暴系统。当风浪和风暴潮与高潮同时发生时，通常会发生严重的海岸淹没。建立了东北沿海海洋预报系统，并从2007年开始投入24/7预报业务。使用一个有效的“端到端”FVCOM洪水模型的NECOFS，我们研究了气候变化引起的海平面上升（SLR）的影响，未来的热带风暴引起的沿海洪水在马萨诸塞州海岸。评估是通过模型实验来完成的，以预测在百年一遇的风暴条件下，在不同的SLR情景下，在Scituate和波士顿港的沿海地区的风暴引起的洪水。结果表明，与持续的SLR，美国东北部海岸将更容易受到更严重的波跑引起的飞溅/越浪比风引起的风暴潮。这一发现与过去十年中风暴产生的表面波强度的变化是一致的。模型还表明，涌浪和表面波对SLR的响应是完全非线性的。SLR对未来风暴引起的海岸淹没的影响的评估应采用包括波流相互作用的模型进行研究。
Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) and nor'easters (extratropical cyclones) are two major storm systems for flood risk over the Massachusetts coast. Severe coastal inundation usually happens when wind-induced waves and storm surges coincide with high tides. A Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS) was established and placed into the 24/7 forecast operations starting in 2007. Using a well-validated “end to end” FVCOM inundation model of NECOFS, we examined the impact of climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) on the future extratropical storms-induced coastal inundation over the Massachusetts coast. The assessment was done by making the model experiments to project the storm-induced inundation over the coastal areas of Scituate and Boston Harbors with different SLR scenarios under a hundred-year storm condition. The results suggest that with sustained SLR, the northeastern US coast will be vulnerable more severely to wave runup-induced splashing/overtopping than wind-induced storm surges. This finding is consistent with the change in the intensity of storm-generated surface waves in the last decade. The model also suggests that the responses of surge and surface waves to SLR are fully nonlinear. The assessment of the impacts of SLR on the future storm-induced coastal inundation should be investigated with a model including wave-current interactions.